Experience of in-country consulting for seasonal adjustment issues.
Expert in practical use and research related to seasonal
adjustment.
Research into the design and analysis of repeated surveys.
Expert in measuring and analysing short term and annual survey outputs. Including experienced in retail activity, business investment, changes in stocks and land.
Researching and implementation of systems and methods for economic statistics.
Courses
McLaren, C.H. (2017). Improving the quality of available Short-term
business statistics in Bosnia and Herzegovina - introducing JDemetra+ for
seasonal adjustment, Banja Luka, Republika Srpska Institute of Statistics,
6-9 February 2017. (20 participants)
Elliott, D., and McLaren, C.H. (2016). Seasonal adjustment with JDemetra+,
Podgorica, Montenegro, 1-3 November 2016. (17 participants, multi-country
participation)
McLaren, C.H. (2009). Overview of seasonal adjustment using WinX12 and X-13A-S, Half day workshop: 26th October 2009,
Conference: Journees sur la correction de la Saisonnalite, Paris.
Fortier, S., Ladiray, D., McLaren, C.H., Monsell, B., and Quenneville, B. (2009). Seasonal adjustment in official statistics, Short Course, 57th International Statistical
Institute, Durban, 14 - 15 August 2009. (Presenters: Craig McLaren and Brian Monsell)
Steel, D.G. and McLaren, C.H. (2007). Design and Analysis of Repeated Surveys, Short Course, 56th International Statistical Institute, Lisboa, 30 - 31 August 2007.
McLaren, C.H. and Stuckey, A. (2005) Seasonal adjustment training for the
Indonesian government, 24th May to 3rd July 2005. Jakarta, Indonesia.
Steel, D.G. and McLaren, C.H. (2005). Design and Analysis of Repeated Surveys, Short Course, 55th International Statistical Institute, Sydney, 13 - 14 April 2005.
Book chapters
Elliott, D., Kirchner R., and McLaren, C.H. (2018). Chapter 20: Revisions in Handbook of Seasonal Adjustment, ed. Mazzi, Ladiray, Rieser. Eurostat.
(book)
Boxall, M., McLaren, C.H. and Zhang, M. (2018). Chapter 21: Data Presentation Issues in Handbook of Seasonal Adjustment, ed. Mazzi, Ladiray, Rieser.
Eurostat.
(book)
Steel, D. G. and McLaren, C. H. (2009). Design and inference over
time.
Chapter 33 in C. R. Rao and D. Pfeffermann (Ed.), Handbook of Statistics
Volume 29: Sampling Theory Methods and Inference. Amsterdam: North
Holland.
Selected information and research papers
All papers remain the copyright of the respective journals. Papers are
provided here for personal use only.
McLaren, C.H. and Murphy J. (2017)
Review of costs of ownership transfer and treatment in the UK National
Accounts, Office for National Statistics, UK, February 2017, (paper | external
link)
McLaren, C.H. and Murphy J. (2017)
Changes to the gross fixed capital formation methodology and processing,
Office for National Statistics, UK, January 2017,
(paper
|
external
link)
McLaren, C.H. and Vaughan, N. (2017), Discussion comment, page 44 of:
Should we sample a time series more frequently? : Decision support via
multirate spectrum estimation (with discussion). / Nason, Guy; Powell, Ben
J; Elliott, Duncan; Smith, Paul.
In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in
Society), Issue online: January 2017,
(external
link)
Drew, S., Lewis, P. and McLaren, C.H. (2016)
Chain-linking methods used within the UK National Accounts, Office
for National Statistics, UK, October 2016,
(external
link)
McLaren, C.H., and Davies, K. (2016)
Ask the Experts: Why do official surveys sometimes tell a different story from alternative
sources?, The Survey Statistician, Newsletter of the International Association of Survey
Statisticians, No. 73, January 2016,
(external link)
Stapenhurst, C. and McLaren, C.H. (2015)
Presenting a Generalised Perpetual Inventory Method, United Kingdom
Government Statistical Service Methodology Symposium, July 2015,
(paper)
McLaren, C.H. and Stapenhurst, C. (2015)
A note on distributions used when calculating estimates of consumption of fixed capital, ONS Methodology Working Paper Series No 3,
Office for National Statistics, UK, March 2015.
(paper
|
external link )
McLaren, C.H. and Drew, S. (2015)
Practical guidance on modelling for the implementation of changes to National Accounts outputs, ONS Methodology
Working Paper Series No 2, Office for National Statistics, UK, January 2015.
(paper
|
external link )
McLaren, C.H. (2013) Methods for estimating consolidated balance sheets for the financial
accounts in the United Kingdom, Working paper, Office for National Statistics, UK,
August 2013.
(paper
|
external
link )
McLaren, C.H. (2012) Synthesis of the results of the survey on
Intellectual Property Products
Working Party on National Accounts, OECD, Paris, October 2012.
(paper)
Ynesta, I., and McLaren, C.H. (2012) OECD Survey on the Implementation of
the 2008 SNA: Results and main outcome.
Working Party on National Accounts, OECD, Paris, October 2012.
(paper)
McLaren, C.H. (2011) Blue Book 2011: Improvements to gross
capital formation estimates.
Information article, Office for National Statistics, UK, August
2011.
(paper)
McLaren, C.H., Saunders, B. and Zammit, C. (2011) Comparing the Perpetual
Inventory Method and the Whole of Government Accounts for depreciation.
Information article, Office for National Statistics, UK, June 2011.
(paper)
McLaren, C.H. and Zhang X. (2010) The Importance of Trend-Cycle Analysis
for National Statistics Institutes, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Volume
28-3, 2010, pages 607-624. (paper)
McLaren, C.H. (2010) Classification changes in retail sales. Information
paper, Office for National Statistics, UK, February 2010. (paper)
McLaren, C.H. (2010) An experimental measure of Internet retail sales:
Changes to methods. Information Paper, Office for National Statistics, UK,
February 2010.
(paper)
Martin, B., Meszaros, P., Elliott, D. and McLaren, C.H. (2009) Issues in
Trend-Cycle Estimates for Official Statistics. Proceedings
of the Survey
Research Section, American Statistical Association, Joint Statistics
Meeting, Washington, DC, August 1 - 6, 2009. (paper)
Anagboso, M. and McLaren, C.H. (2009) The impact of the recession on retail sales volumes, Economic and Labour Market Review, Volume 3, No. 8, August, Office for National
Statistics.
(paper)
McLaren, C.H. (2009) Changes to the Retail Sales methodology, Economic and
Labour Market Review, Volume 3, No. 6, June, Office for National
Statistics.
(paper)
McLaren, C.H. (2008) Developed explanatory and special background notes on
the analysis of underlying growth in retail sales at the time of the United Kingdom
recession. May to November 2008.
(external
link)
Elliott, D., McLaren, C.H., Chow, J. (2008) A Decomposition Approach to
Revisions in Aggregated Time Series Estimates, Proceedings of the Survey
Research Section, American Statistical Association, Joint Statistics
Meeting, Denver, August 3 - 7, 2008.
(paper)
McCrae, R., McLaren, C.H., Wood, R. and Youll, R. (2008) Decomposing the
Retail Sales Index implied price deflator and the CPI, Economic and Labour
Market Review, Volume 2, No. 5, May, Office for National Statistics.
(paper)
Elliott, D., McLaren, C.H., and Zhang, X. (2007) Quantifying and Measuring
Revisions in Time-Series Estimates, Proceedings of the Survey
Research Section, American Statistical Association, Joint Statistics
Meeting, Salt Lake City, July 29 to August 2, 2007.
(paper)
Hussain, F, McLaren, C.H., and Stuttard, N. (2007) The Use of Seasonal
Adjustment Software within the Office for National Statistics, Proceedings
of the Fifth International Conference of the Association for Survey
Computing: "The Challenges of a Changing World" p353-363, ISBN: 0 9546748
2 0 (paper)
Zhang, X, von Sanden, N., Menezes, Z., and McLaren, C.H. (2006) Some
Aspects of Turning Point Detection in Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
Estimates, Methodology Advisory Committee, June 2006, Australian Bureau of
Statistics, Catalogue: 135.0.55.079. (paper)
Menezes, Z., McLaren C.H., von Sanden, N., Zhang, X. and Black M. (2006)
Timely detection of turning points: Should I use the seasonally adjusted
or trend estimates? Proceedings
of the conference on Seasonality, Seasonal Adjustment and their
implications for Short-Term Analysis and Forecasting. May 2006,
Luxembourg. (abstract) (preprint) (paper)
McLaren, C.H., McCaskill, D., and Zhang, X. (2006) SEASABS: Australian
Bureau of Statistics seasonal adjustment package. Proceedings
of the conference on Seasonality, Seasonal Adjustment and their
implications for Short-Term Analysis and Forecasting. May 2006,
Luxembourg. (abstract) (preprint) (paper)
Zhang, X., McLaren, C.H. (2005) Multivariate Techniques to Improve
Revisions of Trend Estimates, Proceedings of 55th Session of the
International Statistical Institute, 5 - 12 April 2005, Sydney, Australia.
(paper)
Horton, D., McLaren, C.H. and Zhang, X. (2005) Detecting Changes in
Seasonal Patterns, Proceedings of 55th Session of the International
Statistical Institute, 5 - 12 April 2005, Sydney, Australia.
(paper)
Stuckey, A., Zhang, X., and McLaren, C.H. (2005) Ensuring Additivity in
Seasonally Adjusted Estimates while Accounting for Level, Movement and
Volatility Proceedings of 55th Session of the International Statistical
Institute, 5 - 12 April 2005, Sydney, Australia
Stuckey, A. Zhang, X and McLaren, C.H. (2004) "Aggregation of Seasonally
adjusted estimates by post-adjustment". Methodological Advisory Committee,
November 2004, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
(preprint)
McLaren, C.H. and Zhang, M. (2003) Using multilevel models to estimate
seasonal factors from short span data, Proceedings of the 54th ISI
Session, Contributed Paper, Berlin, August 13-20, 2003.
(paper)
McLaren, C. H. and Zhang, M. (2003) Estimation of seasonal factors for a
short time span using
multi-level modelling with mixed effects, Working Paper No. 2003/1,
March 2003, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. (paper)
Steel, D. G. and McLaren, C. H. (2002). "In Search of a Good Rotation
Pattern", Advances in Statistics, Combinatorics and
Related Areas, Chandra Gulati, Yan-Xia Lin, Satya Mishra and John
Rayner (eds). Singapore: World Scientific, pages 309-319. (paper)
McLaren, C.H. and Steel, D.G. (2001). "Rotation patterns and trend
estimation for repeated surveys using rotation group estimates", Statistica
Neerlandica, Vol. 55, no. 2, pages 221-238. (abstract) (paper)
Steel, D.G. and McLaren C.H. (2000). "Designing for trend estimation in
repeated business surveys", Proceedings of the International Conference
on Establishment Surveys II, Invited Papers, pages 799-808. American
Statistical Association. (paper)
McLaren, C.H. and Steel, D.G. (2000). "The impact of different
rotation patterns on the sampling variance of trend estimates",
Survey
Methodology, Vol. 26, No. 2, pages 163-172. (abstract) (paper)
Steel, D.G. and McLaren, C.H. (2000). "The effect of different
rotation patterns on the revisions of trend estimates"
Journal of Official Statistics,
Vol.
16, pages 61-76. (abstract) (paper)
Leung, C., McLaren, C.H., and Zhang, M. (1999). "Adjusting for an
Easter proximity effect" Working Paper No. 99/3, December 1999,
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. (paper)
McLaren, C.H. (1999). "Designing Rotation Patterns and Filters for Trend
Estimation in Repeated Surveys" Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of
Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Australia.
(abstract | thesis)
Steel, D.G. and McLaren, C.H. (1999). "Choosing rotation patterns
for trend estimation" Bulletin of the International Statistical
Institute, 52nd Session, invited papers, book 2, pp 303-306.
McLaren, C.H. and Steel, D.G. (1998). Designing trend filters and rotation patterns
for repeated surveys, School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of
Wollongong, preprint no. 19/98.
McLaren, C.H. and Steel, D.G. (1997). "The Effect of Different Rotation Patterns on the Sampling
Variance of Seasonal and Trend Filters" Proceedings of the Survey Research
Section, American Statistical Association, p790-794. (paper | external
link)